The Clarion Call : What If. . . Awakening to a New Day, Fall 2003

Autumn 2003 Issue

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What If . . .

	Introduction by Bill McKendree, President

One of the most important qualities of leadership is the ability to project a clear vision of the future. To be able to confidently predict what tomorrow will bring while preparing for possible opportunities and guarding against potential threats. However, in light of recent events, is it possible to demonstrate such leadership when the future has become so seemingly unpredictable? Scenario Planning is an established management tool that seeks to shed light on future possibilities that are obscured by uncertainty. At The Clarion Group, we have found that the skillful application of Scenario Planning increases leadership capacity and enables organizations to be more agile and resilient in the face of dramatic change. As a thoughtful, proactive framework, scenario thinking applies the power of creative thinking to the analytical process of strategic planning. It examines both deeper, intangible considerations such as mindsets, assumptions, hopes and fears, as well as quantitative, measurable factors such as environmental drivers, risk analyses, and forecasts. It also allows for the unpredictability of chance while recognizing the power of choice. The Clarion Group takes an integrated, interdisciplinary approach to Scenario Planning. We bring our capacity for expansive thinking to every client project, as well as our deeper understanding of the behavioral and cognitive skills neces-sary to apply the tools and models. The result is a more meaningful experience and a greater acceptance on the part of our clients’ organizations. Roy Maurer, a senior advisor at The Clarion Group, articulates our approach to scenario thinking in this issue of The Clarion Call. It offers a glimpse into the process we undertake with clients. We hope you enjoy considering "What If..." and, as always, we welcome your feedback.

Awakening to a New Day

(Page 1 of 3)

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A subtle shift is emerging in the psyche of American business. Our collective thoughts gravitate to 9/11 as a catastrophic turning point, but tremors such as Enron and SARS also have split ugly cracks in the surface of our once familiar landscape. We now live with heightened awareness that we may awaken from our sleep tomorrow in a world that is a very different place from the one we know tonight.

It is the degree of difference that is significant to business leaders. Incremental change is the fabric of life in an organic world and is to some extent manageable. Annual forecasting tools are adequate for a range of predictions within acceptable degrees of certainty. But when corporate results are tossed about by wildly fluctuating external factors, investing shareholder capital feels more like betting your life’s savings on the Wheel of Chance.

A Risky Game of “What If...”
The nature and magnitude of recent threats blur the distinction between personal fear and business anxiety. Could anyone have predicted the convergence of catastrophes that created such an overnight vacuum of demand in travel as to cause entire airlines to fall from the financial skies? How could it be that the world is so different... and so suddenly?

An instinctual drive toward survival and a heightened alertness in the face of danger run deep to the human core. Climbing up out of the shock of it all, we ask, “Why couldn’t I see this coming?” and “What else is waiting out there in the future for which I am unprepared?”

At the same time individuals re-examine their beliefs about the security of life in their personal realm, business leaders are opening up to the possibility that long-cherished corporate assumptions about “the way things are” just might be worth a second look.

If security and survival is the paradigm, perhaps businesses can draw a lesson from Darwin: “It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, rather it is those most responsive to change.” Surviving in the game of “What If...” is all about anticipating change and responding with agility and speed.

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