Blog Post

Strategy at the Edge of the Unknown

Roy Maurer, Partner at The Clarion Group, Ltd. • Mar 13, 2020
Right now, business leaders are dealing with critical in-the-moment tactical planning on the battleground to protect against the invasion of a new enemy that snuck through the lines, unseen. That is where they should be: taking care of their troops, regrouping, making provisions for a temporary camp and laying out contingency plans.

But contingency plans for what?  It feels like we have crossed over into the unknown, but more accurately, the unknown crossed over into us.  Even our own territory is now strange and unfamiliar.   For some, it feels more like entering the Twilight Zone.
At some point very soon, in a quieter moment, perhaps waking up in the middle of the night, business leaders will begin to face the deeper strategic question of planning in an unknown future.  This moment in time may require a different approach to strategy than most have been taught or are comfortable with.  Yet it is one proven successful in military planning for some time now.  Herman Kahn developed a technique in the 1950s of describing future “stories” of what military wars might look like – Scenarios.  In Rita McGrath’s current book, Seeing Around Corners, she employs much the same techniques.  Business leaders need to become much more skillful at anticipating inflection points.  A skillful way to do that is to identify a range of future options, based on a range of possible futures.

In our experience, there are differences today in the application and the technique from the original, but the practice is solid.  For sure, the time perspective of anticipating future worlds has dramatically shortened if not disappeared.  Pierre Wack, at Shell Oil in the 1970s, was looking out some 20 years. Forget that. Viruses spread with exponential speed through networks of human touch points.  But scenario techniques are just as relevant out over the next 20 months, the time it may take to have a working vaccination:
      • Identify possible relevant factors in the environment that may drive sustainable business results:  social, economic, scientific, demographic, etc. Basically here, important factors at the intersection of business and humanity.

      • Use some structured tools to anticipate direction and degrees of changes, but also to stimulate creativity and open mindedness.  What is actually possible is beyond what many believe is possible.

      • Stretch the thinking to the limits of imagination, outside ordinary bounds of constrained “inside the box” ideas.  Great example:  not linear but exponential degrees of change and speed  –  like the virus that started all this.

      • Monitor leading indicators and begin, now, to lay plans out ahead to be ready for possible directional changes.
      So, the strategic question is what are the possible scenarios for the business environment in the next 20 months?  What possible range of futures can you envision or anticipate? This requires a willingness and a capability to imagine how things could be different, to see things we do not see today.  We just went around a corner that perhaps no one saw coming. We are at an infection point.  If ever there was a moment when we could all agree the future is unknown, this is it.

      This strategic focus need not divert the attention of the whole of the organization. Pierre Wack (Shell Oil) was apparently quoted as follows: “I had the feeling of hunting in a pack of wolves, being the eyes of the pack, and sending signals back to the rest. Now if you see something serious, and the pack doesn’t notice it, you’d better find out – are you in front?”  You just need a small pack of forward-looking thinkers to lead the way.

      And by the way, developing this capability in the organization is not just temporarily relevant to the threat of the coronavirus. This capability lies at the core of business strategy in the world of digital transformation where the speed of change and disruption is also exponential.
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